Which Way to Political Reforms?

As the debate on political reform in Kazakstan continues, NBCentralAsia analysts say parties may well be accorded a greater role now that the governing Otan has consolidated its position, but it remains an open question whether parliamentary democracy will grow stronger as a result.



A November 23 conference on the subject of political reforms in Kazakstan discussed whether it is possible for the political system to develop with government-driven reforms as the motor of change.



NBCentralAsia analysts who attended say there is a real chance that the law will be changed to give political parties a stronger role ahead of the next parliamentary election, due in 2009.



“It’s likely the constitution will undergo some amendment,” said political scientist Andrei Chebotarev. “Given that the authorities are expanding their own Otan party, I believe a higher proportion of members of parliament will be elected by party lists [proportional representation] in the next election.”



A reform of this kind will not, in Chebotarev’s view, cut into Otan’s current dominant position; nor will it mean parliament gains a greater role in the political system.



On November 23, the Agrarian party became the third party to merge with Otan, which following its earlier incorporation of Asar and the Civic Party now has around 980,000 members. According to Chebotarev, these mergers are driven by a desire to consolidate pro-government political forces, because as he put it, the smaller parties contributed little to promoting the authorities’ interests before Otan swallowed them up.



Political scientist Burikhan Nurmukhamedov disagrees with the view of some analysts that the emergence of one big party will serve as the catalyst for reform.



Instead, he would like to see a sweeping constitutional reform to boost the role of elected bodies. This, he argues, is the right way to create the stability that will be needed come the next presidential election in 2012. “We have to prepare the country for a time when the current head of state [Nursultan Nazarbaev] steps down, or a rival candidate stands against him,” he said. “So we must conceptualise political stability as a long-term thing.”



He concluded, “There is a kind of stability that is based on consensus, on seeking common ground, on shared principles and respect, and on having the opposition represented in all areas of power. That kind of stability will be much more durable than what we have now.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)