Opposition Regroups

A flurry of activity among opposition parties in Kazakstan suggests they want to break back into mainstream politics and act as a counterweight to Otan, the recently beefed-up presidential party.



On September 10, two opposition parties, the National Social Democratic Party and Alga, held their founding congresses. The former party emerged from the Movement For a Fair Kazakstan, and is led by Zharmakhan Tuyakbay, the former speaker of parliament who switched to the opposition after the 2004 parliamentary election.



Alga is the still unregistered successor to the Democratic Choice of Kazakstan party, which was outlawed by a court in Almaty in February 2005 after being accused of extremism and making anti-constitutional statements. Later the same year, the government refused to register Alga, arguing that it had not gathered the requisite 50,000 members. This forced Alga to re-form in a second attempt to win official recognition.



NBCentralAsia's political experts believe the National Social Democrats have a much greater chance of being registered than Alga. If, however, both of them succeed in doing so, it will significantly increase the opposition’s chances of wooing voters in future elections.



In the last parliamentary election, the opposition got just one seat. Only three of Kazakstan's 12 recognised political parties belong to the opposition.



Some NBCentralAsia commentators view the emergence of these new opposition parties as a response to the recent merger of two pro-government parties, Otan and Asar, which together can claim a membership of 700,000.



However, the commentators suggest that neither the National Social Democrats nor Alga has either the support-base or the political leverage to offer serious competition to the giant Otan. The pro-government camp has, by contrast, a range of instruments it can use, such as obstructing the registration of opposition parties or ordering financial checks on their books. It also has a monopoly over the media sector.



All these factors combine to suggest that the two fledgling parties will not have an easy time breaking into the political arena.



For these new parties are to succeed, they need the acquiescence of the ruling party. That could be possible if Otan calculates that it is in its best interests to have a clearly defined opposition.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)