Kazaks Must Weigh Allegiances to Russia, Georgia

Although Kazakstan has a substantial stake in Georgia’s economy, some analysts suggest that it will be forced to side with Russia if the confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi escalates any further.



The unprecedented stand-off between the Russians and Georgians has placed a severe strain on relationships within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS, the post-Soviet grouping of which Georgia as well as Russian and Kazakstan is a member). Armenia, for instance, depends on Georgia as a transit route, and has already expressed concern at the impact of a Russian economic blockade of its neighbour.



Analysts in Kazakstan, too, believe the dispute will have an effect on their country, which has pledged hundreds of millions of US dollars in direct investment in Georgia.



Much of that investment is in the oil and gas sector. In May, the gas distribution firm KazTransGaz, a subsidiary of the national oil and gas company KazMunaiGaz, bought TbilGazi, the local gas network. In mid-September, KazMunaiGaz and KazTransOil created a joint venture called Batumi Terminals, in conjunction with the oil terminal of the Black Sea port of Batumi, to bring about a significant boost in the volume of Kazak oil exported via Georgia.



Despite these commercial interests, many of NBCentralAsia’s experts believe that if the Russian-Georgian stand-off continues, Kazakstan will have to support Moscow. The reason is simple – Kazak investment in Georgia is all to do with oil and gas, but the country still remains dependent on Russian pipelines for most of its hydrocarbon exports. Take, for example, the November 2005 deal which provided for two billion cubic metres of Kazak gas to go to Georgia every year from 2006. To get the gas to its destination, Kazakstan will have to use the Russian pipeline network.



Referring to the October 3 meeting between the Russian and Kazak presidents, at which gas deals were the main agenda item, Kazakstan-based political commentator Oleg Sidorov told NBCentralAsia, “One can say for sure that the two presidents discussed Georgia, and that they arrived at a common solution to the matter – one that was not to Georgia’s advantage.”



Eduard Poletaev, editor-in-chief of the Mir Yevrazii journal, takes a different view: he believes that Moscow will not introduce energy issues into its dispute with Georgia, so that Kazakstan will be spared from taking sides. “It is unlikely that Russia will stop gas supplies [to Georgia],” said Poletaev. “It has the upper hand at the moment anyway. If it were to use gas as political leverage, it would risk seriously upsetting its relationship with Europe. And Georgia could always buy gas from Iran.”



As for Astana’s role in the dispute, Poletaev said, “Kazakstan is Georgia’s number one investor among the CIS members - why would it risk losing that position? I think Astana will remain neutral, and will continue investing in Georgia.



“If the Russian-Georgian conflict escalates as far as military action, it is quite possible that [Kazak president Nursultan] Nazarbaev will step in as peacemaker.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)