Serbia: SPS Holds Key to ICTY Cooperation

Monday, 19 May, 2008

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Aleksandar Roknić

IWPR-trained journalist

The party once led by Slobodan Milosevic looks like it will have a hand in running Serbia for the first time since the former president was deposed in 2000 – with far-reaching consequences for Serbia and cooperation with the Hague war crimes tribunal.



The Socialist Party, SPS, which was founded and led for ten years by Milosevic, who died while standing trial for war crimes in The Hague, could form a government by joining the extremist Serbian Radical Party, SRS, in a coalition with Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica’s moderate nationalist Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, and New Serbia; or team up with President Boris Tadic’s reformist Democratic Party, DS, and G17 Plus.



Analysts suggest that if the socialists broker a deal with the radical nationalists and DSS-New Serbia, cooperation with the tribunal will suffer, whereas if they opt for the DS/G17 Plus coalition, the Hague court’s work is less likely to be obstructed.



In last week’s polls, the DS party won 102 out of parliament’s 250 seats. The SRS and the DSS-New Serbia came second and third with 78 and 30 respectively, while the socialists secured 20.



Although the SRS and DSS-New Serbia have not signed a formal power-sharing agreement, they have agreed on what the basic principles of the new government should be. Top of their policy agenda – which includes a fight against crime and corruption, and the economic development of Serbia – would be attempting to regain control of Kosovo which declared independence in February.



In a very tense week for Serbian politics, the SRS and DSS have laid out a framework for working with the socialists, who now have the casting vote in deciding which of the two main blocks will secure a parliamentary majority.



Socialist leader Ivica Dacic said that coalition talks with Kostunica’s alliance were “constructive” and that negotiations were “going in a good direction”.



“We have very similar positions to DSS-New Serbia on national and state issues,” said Dacic.



However, he added that before a formal agreement could be reached, DSS-New Serbia must first sign up to principles of “social justice”, by introducing new legislation surrounding work and pensions, as well as policies to improve healthcare and education.



Meanwhile, Tadic’s reformists are also courting the socialists, hoping to form a government with them and the national minority parties. The president says it is his duty to oppose Kostunica and the SRS’s efforts to form a government because they would jeopardise Serbia’s efforts to join the European Union.



Tadic claims to have had unofficial contact with the socialists over the matter, but Dacic denied this, saying that the party could not negotiate with two potential partners, simultaneously.



The socialists, however, have indicated that they will be open to discussions with DS/G17 Plus if talks with Kostunica and the radicals fail.



An agreement with Tadic’s reformists could be an attractive prospect to many socialists who might see it as opportunity to distance themselves from Milosevic’s catastrophic nationalist policies and to place their party squarely behind European integration. Stronger European ties have formed a central plank of Tadic’s election campaign.



The radicals, on the other hand, have no truck with the EU. The SRS deputy leader, Tomislav Nikolic, has said they will cooperate with the union on one condition – that it recognises Kosovo as an integral part of Serbia.



Working with Tadic’s reformists would also help the socialists attract new voters, reducing their dependence on die-hard, Milosevic-era supporters.



While some members of DS/G 17 Plus say the socialists successfully laid the past to rest when they severed ties with the Yugoslav Left party, JUL, led by Milosevic’s wife, others argue that the SPS has not truly reformed, and has the same people and the same ideas as it did when led by the former president.



In the past, the socialists have had an uneasy relationship with the court, not least because several high-profile SPS members have been indicted. The party’s cooperation with the tribunal only began after the fall of Milosevic eight years ago.



Party members among the tribunal accused include ex-deputy Yugoslav prime minister Nikola Sainovic; ex-Serbian president Milan Milutinovic; former Serbian state security service head and Milosevic ally Jovica Stanisic, as well as his onetime deputy Franko Simatovic.



President of the DS’s political committee Dragoljub Micunovic said that an agreement between his party and the socialists would ensure that both parties would work to “fulfil [their] international obligations” by cooperating with the tribunal.



However, if the socialists plump for a deal with Kostunica and the radicals, analysts doubt whether Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb military commander wanted on charges relating to the 1995 genocide in Srebrenica, will ever be handed over to the Hague court.



“That would absolutely eliminate the possibility of Mladic being transferred to The Hague and would stop cooperation with tribunal,” said Miljenko Dereta, director of the NGO Civic Initiative.



Political analyst Dragan Bujosevic said that an SPS coalition with DS/G17 Plus could mean that Serbia would ironically come under less pressure from the EU to hand over Mladic.



“The EU will be benevolent towards a government led by the [reformists]. [The EU] will say that the will clearly exists to find Ratko Mladic and that the democratic government wants to cooperate,” said Bujosevic.



“But if the radicals form a government, the EU will insist they want Mladic in The Hague.”



Political analyst Cvijetin Milivojevic argued, however, that it might make little difference which group comes to power.



“If the radical-national coalition…and the socialists form a government, I think the situation will be as it is today. They won’t have any enthusiasm for transferring tribunal fugitives [to The Hague], but the situation won’t be worse than it is today,” he said.



Both the radicals and Tadic’s reformists, he noted, have given mixed signals over tribunal cooperation, “The radicals say publicly that they are against cooperation, but their president [Vojislav Seselj] went to The Hague voluntarily. Also, Tadic’s party claimed that [Mladic] wasn’t in Serbia.



“I think that neither side wants to change anything.”



Aleksandar Roknic is an IWPR-trained reporter in Belgrade.