Expectations Plummet as Afghan Peace Jirga Opens

The rhetoric was bravely upbeat in Kabul as Afghan president Hamed Karzai opened the long-awaited “peace jirga”, an assembly which is supposed to develop a plan for doing away with cross-border insurgency along the frontier with Pakistan.



“We will identify and bring to justice those terrorists who disgrace Islam, Afghanistan and Pakistan,” said Karzai, after setting forth a long and somewhat rambling history of the Taleban. “I am confident that if we decide to get rid of this evil, it will be gone tomorrow.”



But his counterpart Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf was not there to respond: At the last minute, he sent his regrets and despatched his prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, in his place.



Aziz attempted to smooth ruffled feathers by saying that Musharraf “strongly endorses and wishes complete success” to the jirga. Addressing the assembled delegates in English, he was a bit less flowery that Karzai, and saw fit to remind his hosts that the terrorists were, after all, “people of Afghanistan”.



The prime minister said his president was unable to attend due to “pressing engagements”.



There had been rumours, denied in Islamabad, that Musharraf was about to declare a state of emergency after a series of political crises in the country.



But his absence went a long way towards torpedoing an event that was already a tenuous affair.



It also exposed the fault lines in what has been an extremely tense relationship over the past few years. Afghanistan has accused Pakistan of supporting terrorism across the porous border.



In particular, Afghan leaders have alleged that religious schools and training camps inside Pakistan, operating with the knowledge of the government, prepare suicide bombers for missions in Afghanistan. The frontier city of Quetta is seen as a haven for Taleban and, increasingly, al-Qaeda operatives working to destabilise the situation across the border to the north.



The jirga, a traditional meeting of Afghan elders, was the brainchild of Karzai, formulated during a meeting last year with Musharraf and United States president George Bush.



For weeks, the Afghan capital had been braced for the event. In the days leading up to the July 9 opening, security was increased, streets were blocked and tempers were frayed.



The news that the guest of honour was not coming did nothing to improve the mood of jirga organisers and participants, and Kabul residents generally.



“Musharraf wanted to sabotage the jirga,” said political analyst Fazel Rahman Oria. “It destroyed the balance. A jirga needs to have both sides in a dispute, plus a third party to mediate. Here we don’t have Musharraf, and we don’t have the international community as a third party.



“Apart from Musharraf, over 70 elders and religious leaders from Pakistan have boycotted the jirga. Nor are Karzai’s opponents, the Taleban, represented. And the delegates were chosen by the government, so they are not representative of the people.”



Given all these factors, said Oria, this jirga could do more harm than good.



“I can see the jirga having very negative results,” he said. “Its decisions will remain on paper, and the Taleban will get braver and more active, because they will see that there is no support for this process among the people.”



Some of the delegates from Pakistan were similarly pessimistic.



“The situation in Pakistan gave Musharraf an excuse not to come to the jirga,” said Dr Enayatullah Khan, from the border region of Balochistan. “There were a lot of hopes for the jirga, but Musharraf’s failure to appear just ruined those chances.”



One Pakistani tribal leader who did not want to be named attributed Musharraf’s absence to a deliberate policy towards Afghanistan.



“Musharraf and the Pakistani intelligence community have never had good intentions towards Afghanistan,” he said. “They do not want Afghanistan to be prosperous and secure. Right now there are dozens of ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence] officers among us. So what can we expect from this jirga?”



Kabul residents also voiced displeasure at the absence of the Pakistani leader.



“Musharraf is not interested in this jirga,” said Rahimullah, 23, a student at Kabul Polytechnic University. “He does not care about Afghan traditions. A jirga is a very respected thing in this country. He should have come, and taken an oath in front of the people to work together instead of against one another.”



Dr Hamayoun, 38, sounded a lone optimistic note, saying, “I am very hopeful that the results will be very good. Musharraf did not come, but he did send his prime minister, the second person in the country.



“He has his own problems. Decisions are not made between persons, they are made between countries.”



But overwhelmingly, Kabul’s residents were angry and pessimistic.



Shah Mohammad, a soldier with the Afghan National Army, said he had been standing guard for five days and nights in preparation for the jirga.



“If [Musharraf] had come, all of our work would have been worthwhile,” he said. “But now I regret all that we went through. Musharraf deliberately did not come. He doesn’t want Afghanistan to be secure. Our biggest enemy is this Musharraf and his country.”



Malalai, a Kabul resident, agreed, saying, “Musharraf has darkness in his heart; he will never stand for a strong and prosperous Afghanistan. I think things will only get worse after this jirga. You cannot expect an enemy to salve your wounds.”



Hafizullah Gardesh is the editor of the Afghan Recovery Report in Kabul. Wahidullah Amani is an IWPR staff reporter in Kabul.