Georgia Opposition Brush Aside Call for Dialogue

Confident they can mobilise the masses on April 9, president’s foes dismiss calls for talks as too late in the day.

By Tamar Kadagidze in Tbilisi (CRS No. 487, 3-Apr-09)

With a week left before the Georgian opposition plans to start street protests aimed at forcing President Mikheil Saakashvili to step down, opposition leaders have dismissed calls for dialogue as belated.

Thirteen opposition parties that plan to take part in the April 9 protests have signed a memorandum in which they pledged a united front against Saakashvili’s rule.

The core of the opposition movement is led by two former allies of Saakashvili: Irakli Alasania, who represented Georgia in the United Nations before forming the Alliance for Georgia several months ago; and the former speaker of the Georgian parliament, Nino Burjanadze, now leader of the Democratic Movement – United Georgia.

Last week, the authorities, who until then had appeared unruffled by opposition preparations, released a video showing several opposition activists, allegedly associated with Burjanadze’s party, trying to buy automatic guns and pistols furnished with silencers.

They were also discussing the possibility of staging provocations on April 9.

The opposition dismissed the footage as a montage produced by the interior ministry to discredit them ahead of the rally.

Burjanadze said the authorities’ claims of having rumbled a dangerous plot were “absurd”, while confirming that many of the people on the video were members of her party.

But Saakashvili insisted the film was no montage, and had revealed plans for serious acts of violence.

The president thanked the police for their “highly effective work over the last weeks”, which he said had “undermined plans to create mass disorder and destabilise the situation”.

Following publication of the video, the opposition and government traded arguments over the affair, in a bid to woo uncommitted members of the public.

The opposition recalled the events of November 2007, when the authorities, after violently breaking up opposition protests, published video and audio footage that they said exposed the organisers of the protests as Kremlin agents.

Many people today remain sceptical of the government’s latest version of events. “I don’t believe a single word the authorities say,” one Tbilisi resident, named Mamuka, said.

“Our government rivals cinema makers when it comes to producing thrillers. It just wants to frighten people, to keep them out of the streets.”

The authorities, in turn, compare the current situation to the virtual civil war that raged in Georgia in the early Nineties, when the opposition overthrew the then president Zviad Gamsakhurdia.

For several days, Georgian TV channels have been running footage of episodes from the conflict.

Petre Tsiskarishvili, leader of the pro-government majority in parliament, told IWPR, “There are people in Georgia who want to repeat the scenario of 18 years ago.”

“I remember the civil war of the early Nineties as if it happened yesterday,” one resident of the capital said.

“Like they do today, the opposition then said they wouldn’t shoot…History is repeating itself.”

One of the opposition leaders, Irakli Alasania, denied their plans for April 9 envisaged violence.

“It’s difficult to predict how it all will develop,” he said. “But one thing is clear: the opposition feels responsible for the process, and our main aim is to avoid engaging in a clash with law-enforcement bodies.”

Some government officials, meanwhile, are now calling for last-minute talks.

“Dialogue is the only way to defuse the crisis,” the speaker of parliament, David Bakradze, said, on a visit to the United States. “We are ready for this kind of dialogue.”

Many well-known public figures have added their voices to such calls.

Pro-government TV channels have shown them urging both sides to come to their senses and avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.

But the opposition has dismissed the calls as belated, saying they will not be deflected from their plans.

“There’s going to be no dialogue until April 9,” Saakashvili’s former foreign minister, Salome Zurabishvili, now leader of the Georgia’s Path party, said.

“A dialogue is possible only after Saakashvili goes away… Those, who want to negotiate [with the government] now, are not the opposition.”

On April 1, the opposition officially declined the government’s proposal for talks in a joint statement.

“In the current situation, a peaceful change of power through constitutional means is the only issue for dialogue that we see,” the statement said. “And we’re prepared to talk publicly only… with Saakashvili.”

According to commentator Ia Antadze a focus for eventual negotiations, should they happen, could be on securing a date for early parliamentary elections.

But Antadze said this might well play to the president’s strengths. “[In that case], Saakashvili might be said to have won this battle with the opposition before it has even begun, as he knows how to win elections in Georgia,” he said.

Political analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze agreed that no dialogue was likely to start before April 9, when the numbers taking to the streets would decide almost everything.

“Whether or not the dialogue begins, and, if it does, what it will be about, largely depends on the people,” he said.

“If many people will take out to streets on April 9, the authorities will be forced to make compromise.

“If the people are not many, then it will be the opposition that will have to seek a dialogue.”

Tamar Kadagidze is a freelance journalist in Tbilisi.