What Happens Beyond the Election?

08-Nov-06

	© IWPR

Following the re-election of Imomali Rahmonov as president, NBCentralAsia commentators are asking themselves where Tajik politics goes from here. Some argue that a degree of liberalisation may be on the cards.

Rahmonov won a landslide victory on November 6, taking 79 per cent of the vote, according to final figures from the Central Electoral Committee. That means that after 14 years in power, he has another seven years as head of state.

NBCentralAsia commentators offered a diversity of perspectives about future political developments and the likely choices that Rahmonov is likely to make.

Saifullo Safarov, deputy director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, a body attached to the president’s administration, is optimistic that multi-party politics and civil society institutions will grow stronger as Rahmonov leads a process of democratic reform and liberalisation. “That’s in his nature,” said Safarov. “He’s more of a liberal than a hardliner.”

By contrast, Shokirjon Hakimov, the deputy head of the opposition Social Democratic Party, doubts we will see any democratic progress or that a robust civil society will emerge. “That was made plain by the presidential election, in which there were no real alternatives on offer, and which saw breaches of [electoral] legislation,” he said.

Nevertheless, Hakimov predicts that the president will ease off the pressure on political parties and media in order to attract foreign investment and to please the international community. He has the space do do so since the next parliamentary election is still four years away, with another presidential ballot another three years after that.

A third view, expressed by political scientist Hojimahmad Umarov, is that whatever direction the authorities choose to go in, they will need to consider how to reduce the likelihood of revolution.

He noted that Tajikistan’s social and economic problems centre on poverty and labour migration, with over half the working-age male population away in other countries.

“Health care, education, agriculture, job creation, and income opporrtunities are all areas in need of immediate improvements if a social explosion is to be avoided,” said Umarov.

(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)