Iran-US Crisis Could Pose Risk to Central Asia

28-Mar-07

New United Nations sanctions against Iran will not seriously affect Central Asian countries in the short term, but an escalation in the confrontation between Iran and the West could halt Iranian-funded projects and raise tensions in the Caspian region.

On March 24, all 15 members of the UN Security Council, including Russia and China, voted in favour of imposing more sanctions on Iran for refusing to stop its uranium enrichment programme.

The new sanctions will freeze the assets of 23 companies and individuals linked to Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, restrict the travel of some officials and impose an embargo on Iranian exports of arms and military equipment.

The Security Council has given Tehran 60 days to suspend its nuclear programme, but Iranian officials have already rejected the proposal and announced they are scaling down their cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

NBCentralAsia’s commentators do not believe tougher sanctions will affect Central Asia’s collaboration with Iran at this stage.

But longer term, this could change, and Iranian investment projects in Central Asia could be suspended.

Hamza Kamol, an Iran expert based in Tajikistan, predicted, “Instability in Iran will definitely have disastrous consequences for relations between our two states. There’s concern that dozens of Iranian projects that have been launched successfully in Tajikistan will remain unfinished, including the construction of the Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric power station.”

If the situation deteriorates, a project to build an electricity transmission line from Tajikistan to Mashhad may never be completed, Kazakstan may not be able to start exporting uranium to Iran, and Kyrgyz-Iranian trade, which almost doubled last year, could fall.

Political scientist Dosym Satpaev, director of the Risk Assessment Group in Almaty, says that military action against Iran, such as airstrikes on nuclear sites, would render the entire Caspian region dangerously unstable and cut oil industry investment in all the littoral states.

“A possible military conflict involving Iran would be a matter of great concern to us. It would dramatically increase political and economic risk in the Caspian region, and automatically affect Kazakstan’s investment potential,” he said.

NBCentralAsia political expert Mars Sariev warns that a military offensive in Iran would strengthen anti-American sentiment in this largely Muslim region.

“The US threat to Iran is not well received by Muslims in the [Central Asian] countries,” he said.

(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)